21st Century Library Strategic Plan – Forecast

In this expanded Strategic Plan Model below, “Forecast” is included after the Mission and Vision Statements and prior to the Goals and Objectives. This is especially significant in the 21st Century environment due to the rapid changes and highly uncertain factors that influence the public and the library.

The Mission and Vision statements outline and describe why the library exists and what it wants to be, but real-world factors must be introduced into the Strategic Plan for it to be realistic and achievable. Understanding the library’s internal strengths and weaknesses AND the external factors it faces will help guide the development of Goals and Objectives that both capitalize on those strengths and opportunities, as well as improve the weaknesses and address the threats. Self awareness and a realistic understanding of factors that influence the library’s operation will contribute invaluably to Goals and Objectives that describe the future end-state – desired outcomes – that support mission and vision, and direct actions and choices.

Library Trustees or a Board of Directors can be an extremely valuable asset in this process, especially if the appointing authority has chosen a diverse and experienced board that has dealt with such planning processes in other organizations. Most organizations in all sectors deal with strategic planning, and the ability to apply that experience to the library’s Strategic Plan will go far in causing the planning process to produce a highly worthwhile and visionary plan.

FORECAST USING ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN
While there are a number of options for conducting a Forecast of the library’s future operating environment, the Environmental Scan is a relatively simply approach that includes the following components:
1. Internal analysis of the organization (SWOT analysis)
2. External analysis of the organization’s industry (SWOT analysis)
3. External macro environment factors (STEP analysis)

SWOT Analysis
A scan of the internal and external environment is an important part of the strategic planning process. Environmental factors internal to the organization usually can be classified as Strengths or Weaknesses, and those external to the organization can be classified as Opportunities or Threats. Such an analysis of the strategic environment is referred to as a SWOT analysis.

The SWOT analysis provides information that is helpful in matching the organization’s resources and capabilities to the competitive environment in which it operates. As such, it is instrumental in strategy formulation and selection.

1. INTERNAL ANALYSIS OF THE LIBRARY

Strengths
Strength’s are those things that you do well. Strengths can be tangible, like loyal customers, efficient distribution channels, very high quality products, excellent financial condition, cost advantages from being private entity, and strong brand name. Strengths can also be intangible, like good leadership, strategic insights, customer intelligence (as in detailed knowledge of your patrons), good reputation among customers, and highly skilled workforce.

Weaknesses
Weaknesses are those things that prevent you from doing what you really need to do. Since weaknesses are internal, they are within your control, and often include poor leadership, unskilled workforce, insufficient resources, poor product quality, slow distribution and delivery channels, outdated technologies, lack of planning, a weak brand name, and poor reputation among customers.

In some cases, a weakness may be the lack of a strength. Take a case in which a library has a very large collection. While this collection may be considered a strength that competitors do not share, it also may be considered a weakness if the large collection is poorly organized or labeled, and prevents the customer from easily finding the material they seek.

2. EXTERNAL ANALYSIS OF THE INDUSTRY

Opportunities
Opportunities are potential areas for growth and higher performance. Opportunities are external in nature, like untapped segments in the marketplace, dissatisfied customers of your competitors, better economic conditions, more open lending policies, or broader strategic partnerships. Internal opportunities should be classified as Strengths, and timing may also be important for capitalizing on opportunities, such as unfulfilled customer needs, and adoption of new technologies.

Threats
Threats are challenges confronting the library. External in nature, threats can take a wide range from bad press coverage, shifts in consumer behavior and tastes, emergence of competing products, lack of community support, or new regulations. It may be useful to classify or assign probabilities to threats. The more accurate you are in identifying threats, the better position you are in for dealing with the suddenness of change.

Understanding realistic Opportunities and Threats can provide the library a competitive edge in developing a strategic plan that will be forward looking and more useful for preparing the library for the future in which it will serve patrons – a 21st Century future.

The SWOT Analysis is not normally included as a part of the Strategic Plan document, but strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats are identified and detailed so that they may be incorporated into the Goals and Objectives in whatever manner best supports the Strategic Plan.

For example, the large collection mentioned above as a strength can be used to the library’s advantage by promoting the “Largest collection of free materials in the state!” and including that promotion as a goal and/or objective, probably under the Community Relations section of your Strategic Plan. On the other hand, the large collection mentioned above as a weakness can be addressed by goals and/or objectives to “Better organize and label the library’s collection.”, probably in the Customer Service section.

The same applies to results of the External Analysis portion of the SWOT. For example, if lack of community support is identified as a significant threat (say to continued funding support, or even a bond issue), then including Goals and Objectives that overcome that Threat (such as an energetic advocacy campaign, or more beneficial strategic partnerships) make a more useful and productive Strategic Plan. Both Opportunities and Threats should influence Goals and Objectives, because EVERY library has them.

3. EXTERNAL MACRO ENVIRONMENT (STEP Analysis)

STEP Analysis
STEP analysis describes a framework of macro-environmental factors used in the Environmental Scan component of a Strategic Plan. It seeks to identify and assess the external drivers of change (Social, Technological, Economic, and Political) that will have an influence on the library and the environment in which it operates. These factors (simplified) include:

Social Factors
Social factors include the demographic and cultural aspects of the external microenvironment. These factors affect customer needs and the size of potential markets. Some social factors include:
• health consciousness
• population growth rate
• age distribution
• career attitudes
• interest in supporting local agencies

Technological Factors
Technological factors can lower barriers to customer interest, increase production levels, and even influence outsourcing decisions. Some technological factors include:
• R&D activity
• automation
• technology incentives
• rate of technological change

Economic Factors
Economic factors affect the purchasing power of potential customers and the organization’s cost of capital, which in the case of the library is its ability to obtain funds from its funding authority, and outside sources. The following are examples of factors in the macro economy:
• economic growth
• interest rates
• employment rates
• institutional giving levels

Political Factors
Political factors include government regulations and legal issues and define both formal and informal rules under which the organization must operate. Some examples include:
• leadership
• tax policy
• environmental regulations
• purchasing regulations
• agility in decision making
• political stability

STRATEGY FORMULATION
It is hopefully very apparent that a Strategic Plan requires considerable research and investigation of factors with which the library director, staff and board may not be familiar – BUT THEY SHOULD BE! Given the information from the Environmental Scan, the organization should match its strengths to the opportunities that it has identified, while addressing its weaknesses and external threats. Otherwise this 21st Century environment will make your library’s survival VERY DIFFICULT! What they didn’t teach you in library school about surviving (both as a librarian and as a library) in the 21st Century environment is monumental. We must learn new principles and approaches to success for ourselves, and share the lessons learned.

We must begin to think outside the box, open our eyes to outside influences, adopt practices from business, become familiar with SWOT and STEP factors, and work harder than ever to make the library relevant in the 21st Century. Would you rather be stereotyped as a “shusher” or respected as an “entrepreneur”?

More to come…………………
Next up: Goals and Objectives